It was two months ago that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered while Unai Emery admonished him for not reading a penetrating pass. During that period, with the team went six without a win, the question was if Rogers' form were an indicator or the reason for the team's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, though, the sideline response was entirely far more favourable. After the in-form star drilled in his second to restore his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician discarded his winter coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The team marched on to ten wins in a row and despite not winning their opening six games, now sit only three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Title Contenders?
It remains an exceptionally difficult query to answer. History, the traditional standing of the club, indicates otherwise. Moreover, their performances haven't been entirely convincing in many games, even as the victories have piled up.
According to the data, twice all season have Villa registered an xG notably superior than their opponents. For a team which has put together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans look strangely fragile – yet currently the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic appears to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition and wait for their talisman to bail them out with two crisp finishes. This was the case away to Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and it happened when facing United.
Rogers' first goal came from a superb shot, arced just inside the upright from a wide position. His brace-completing goal acted as a somewhat messier replica of his first as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opponents registered more efforts and more direct attempts. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent the club must confront as the season progresses. Rogers, surely, will not continue to blasting his shots into the net's top corner indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists a different scenario in which, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players may yet rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins could start adding to his goal tally.
- The winger could transform into the player he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs are due to come back from the treatment room, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable backline.
Perhaps there is in that the potential of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
Yet, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Villa would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And certainly two months ago, no one envisioned the midfielder by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title and appearing as a vital Three Lions star.
This remarkable period is to be savoured exactly since it feels so unlikely. As Rogers positioned himself before the North End after the match conducting the cheers, he seemed to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These spells are rare in football and should be relished.
